Gold and silver have been in bull markets since 2001, yet many investors in these markets have failed to achieve returns that match those of the market overall. The simple explanation for this is a failure to buy low and sell high and all too frequently a tendency to buy high and panic sell at lows after the metals have suffered significant and frequently terrifying corrections.
The internet has undoubtedly aided gold market investors but due to the sheer volume of analysis available it can also confound them. At any time it is possible to find conflicting advice and projections from seasoned gold market analysts. Determining which analysts to follow and whose advice to ignore can have a fundamental impact on the performance of your portfolio.
For example on the 4 July 2011 readers of Kitco.com would see Warren Bevan arguing that a bottom was in for gold whilst Merv Burak suggested that the short term position for gold was bearish. Listening to and acting on Bevan’s advice would have enabled an investor to participate in the 20% rise in the dollar price of gold before the end of August. They would though have needed guidance in reducing holdings somewhere near the top in late August or early September 2011.
The purpose of Gold-tracker. com is simply to record analyst’s short term (within twelve months) predictions about the direction of gold and silver prices and then to provide a narrative commentary as to how accurate these predictions prove to be.
We only track clear and definite predictions and in so doing note our respect for analysts that are prepared to make such statements. Too many analysts offer conditional or multiple predictions and then claim credit when one of the numerous eventualities that they suggested comes to pass. We ignore such predictions as we consider them worthless.
We track predictions made by analysts if commentaries that are available for free on websites such as Kitco and 321 Gold. We do not track predictions made as part of subscription services, although most of the analysts that we track do offer subscription services.
We currently track the work of about 30 analysts.
Our work, unsurprisingly shows, that no analyst is right all of the time. Equally not even the perma bears have been wrong all of the time, there clearly have been periods during the eleven year bull market when short term disposals of gold and silver would have benefitted the investor. The analysis does suggest that some commentators have a much better track record than others. Our own investment strategy going forward is to attach greater weight to the opinion of those with the best track record in calling short term price direction.
We only track predictions made in respect of gold silver prices. Many analysts make predictions around related currency, bond and stock markets which are clearly relevant to precious metals investors but in the interests of simplicity are excluded here.
We are a completely independent and have absolutely no connection with any of the analysts that we track. Gold-Tracker is a trading name of Nida Ltd, a company registered and based in the UK.